Canadian HR Reporter

CANADIAN HR REPORTER February 8, 2016 NEWS 3 "I don't think that central Can- ada is that vulnerable right now. They are really closely aligned with the U.S. and the U.S. is look- ing not bad. ey are raising inter- est rates because things are look- ing a lot better. And also the Cana- dian dollar being lower is a bit of a shield from everything — we're talking about our exports looking better, and we'll probably get de- cent export numbers from central Canada particularly," she said. "So it's not an all-bad outlook, though some of the headlines are obviously going to be very bleak, and that weighs on confi dence." Some areas out east will see hir- ing this year, said Poschmann. "In some sectors, for instance regionally, particularly in Nova Scotia, the monstrous shipbuild- ing contract… and the scale of the contract is so large that the impact is quite visible in the Hali- fax landscape." Perhaps most significantly, British Columbia has seen some growth, said Hirsch. " e bright spot at the moment is British Columbia. ey're the one province that posted strong growth in 2015 and is almost certain to lead provincial growth rates again in 2016. ey've been a bright light, they've been ben- efi tting from the low dollar from international investment into the lower mainland of B.C. A lot of construction activity, a lot of high- tech activity," he said. "But, sadly, the lower mainland of British Columbia alone is not enough to sort of carry the na- tional job market. It's not provid- ing enough jobs to off set losses elsewhere." Looking forward It's not diffi cult to take a some- what pessimistic bent going into 2016, said Poschmann. "Certainly the hiring outlook for 2016 is not very pretty. You see that in the (Bank of Canada) sur- vey… and that survey corresponds very well with (the observations) of diff erent sectors and diff erent regions," he said. " e somewhat pessimistic view the survey por- trays seems to be borne up by the evidence that I see." And there isn't much indica- tion the oil and gas sector will turn around in the fi rst two quarters, said Hirsch. "We suspect that in 2016, the fi rst half of the year, we're going to continue to see a situation of job losses in the petroleum industry in Alberta," he said. "For Alberta, I would say that the deepest and darkest days of this downturn are going to happen in the fi rst half of 2016. e rest of central Canada is not in recession, but I think it will continue to spin its wheels in Q1 and Q2 as well." Hopefully, things will begin to turn around later in the year. "We're hopeful that by the end of 2016 that we will see stronger commodity prices, stronger oil prices, and that manufacturers in central Canada will start benefi t- ting from the stronger dollar and find some competitive advan- tage," said Hirsch. "We're hoping to see nationally that the job mar- ket shows better results than it showed last year, hopefully helped out by better results in the manu- facturing sector and in business and personal services." In the meantime, employers should take a more long-term view when it comes to hiring and recruitment, said Nazareth. "Employers should be looking much longer down the business cycle. If it's easier to get good people right now, I think you should snap them up because it really won't be in (employers') fa- vour forever. I think we forget this every time we have a recession — hiring shuts down and when things get better, we don't have the right people," she said. "I understand caution, but it doesn't always work." ink longer term BUSINESS < pg. 1 Overall outlook for Canada Canada's two western provinces are headed in different directions in 2016, and human resources leaders in each province are bracing for the impact, according to a recent survey of more than 500 HR leaders in Canada by the Human Resources Management Association (HRMA), the Human Resources Institute of Alberta (HRIA) and Alexander Whitehead Executive Search. In B.C., 45 per cent of HR leaders expect moderate economic growth in 2016 compared to 2015, but in Alberta, that number's at 18 per cent. And 20 per cent of HR leaders in B.C. expect moderate economic decline in 2016, compared to 45 per cent in Alberta. Parting ways 1 % 25 % 28 % 39 % 7 % Anticipate strong economic growth in 2016 compared to 2015. Anticipate moderate economic growth in 2016 compared to 2015. Anticipate no change in economic growth in 2016 compared to 2015. Anticipate moderate economic decline in 2016 compared to 2015. Anticipate strong economic decline in 2016 compared to 2015.

• Cover