Canadian HR Reporter

CANADIAN HR REPORTER August 8, 2016 6 NEWS Two-fifths of workforce at 'high risk' of being affected by automation: Report BY SARAH DOBSON NEARLY 42 per cent of the Cana- dian labour force is at a high risk of being affected by automation in the future. That's because the more re- cent rise of artificial intelligence and advanced robotics means automation is entering the realm of cognitive, non-routine tasks and occupations, such as driving and conducting job interviews, according to a report from the Brookfield Institute for Innova- tion + Entrepreneurship at Ryer- son University in Toronto. Forty-two per cent is a sobering number, even if just half becomes true, according to Sean Mullin, executive director at the institute. "It's a huge restructuring of the labour force over just a short pe- riod of time." Most of the high-risk occupa- tions are in office support and general administration, sales and services, transportation and dis- tribution, lower skilled technical occupations in health, natural and applied sciences, as well as manu- facturing and construction labour- ers and assemblers, said the report. Individuals in these occupa- tions have a much lower aver- age income, at $33,000, which is nearly $29,000 less than occupa- tions at a low risk. ey are also less-educated, as 12.7 per cent of those in the high-risk category have a university degree, com- pared to 45.6 per cent of those in the low-risk group. Jobs that are considered at a low risk of automation are linked to high skill levels and higher earn- ings, such as management and jobs in science, technology, engi- neering and math (STEM). To make its predictions, the Brookfield Institute used the 2013 and 2015 findings of both Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne from the University of Oxford and consulting firm McK- insey & Company. The former estimated the proportion of oc- cupations that can be automated over the next 10 to 20 years while the latter looked at the percent- age of work activities that could be automated using existing technologies. "We thought by using both of these methodologies, it gave you two different approaches to ad- dress the same phenomenon," said Mullin. "Interestingly enough, the results both came out to be 42 per cent of the Canadian labour force." On the other hand, 36 per cent of the employed labour force are at a low risk of being affected by automation while 22 per cent are at medium risk. However, predictions are never perfect, said Sarah Anson-Cart- wright, director of skills and im- migration policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. "Many of us would be skepti- cal to see how that actually plays out. It's not that we haven't seen other books and dire predictions, but we also have seen how tech- nology can spawn different types of employment, and the shift that can take place." While manufacturing, for ex- ample, has seen a huge shedding of traditional assembly line jobs, there has also been a shift towards more advanced manufacturing with different skills, she said. "That's something you have to be very focused on: What areas of a sector may then be the new areas of growth?" said Anson-Cartwright. "We really have to be a little more sanguine when you get a big number like that, that we actu- ally break it down and understand how we should be looking at both the nature of the sector where those occupations may be." Not all jobs will be lost, accord- ing to Mullin, as many will be re- structured while new jobs will be created as the nature of occupa- tions changes due to the impact of technology and computerization. And using the Canadian Oc- cupational Project System, the Brookfield researchers found oc- cupations at a low risk of being af- fected by automation are expect- ed to grow much more than those in the other risk profiles. ere are expected to be nearly 712,000 new jobs in occupations with a low risk of being affected by automation, compared to nearly 360,000 new jobs in the high-risk group. "e areas of the economy that we already deemed to be low risk are already projected to be the larg- est creators of jobs going forward, so that's heartening," said Mullin. "It'll probably be a phenomenon where a large number of those jobs are eliminated, others are restrict- ed, others the nature of the jobs… (is) changed significantly." The effect of automation on the high-risk area is going to be a net negative, he said, but the low risk could be an area where auto- mation, computers and artificial intelligence end up being a net creator of jobs, such as computer programmers or AI technicians, where people work hand in hand with sophisticated software. Recommendations Moving forward, Canada's public and private sectors can help to mitigate the negative effects of technology on employment, while ensuring Canadians can leverage technology to innovate and im- prove productivity and standards of living, said the report. "It's kind of all in our collec- tive interest as a society to get our heads around this," said Mullin. "From the private sector, in partic- ular, if you're a company that miss- es out on this trend, what it means is you're going to be at risk from a competitive business environ- ment that another company that is using labour more effectively, utilizing cutting-edge technology, is going to potentially outcompete you. So I think private companies are going to have to adapt to these changes, particularly if that's where the market is going." But as soon as people talk about automation, there's a fear it means losing staff, said Mave Dhariwal, director of the NAIT Shell Manu- facturing Centre at the Northern Alberta Institute of Technology in Edmonton, which works to link productivity enhancement servic- es with manufacturing solutions. "We have to make work easier for staff by adopting technology so that the heavier work, the repeti- tive work, we do that with assis- tance from some kind of robotic or some kind of automation…. we have to expand the market reach so that we can actually try and get more business, so rather than lay- ing off staff, we should really be looking for more staff, developing more staff because we've made the work easier. Because, if you think about it, globally, we want to really reach out to markets as far as we can." Small companies cannot afford to adopt technologies without testing them first, so to facilitate that, they can test a new product at the centre, he said. And if com- panies don't want to shut down production to introduce a new product or system, staff can be trained at the centre first. "at's how we… encourage in- dustry to adopt technology with- out having to invest money in it upfront." It's also very disruptive to get rid of employees in one area while finding more qualified ones in another, said Mullin, so for an employee to be successful in this new world, it'll be about building a set of skills called "digital literacy." at means working constantly with computers and sophisticat- ed software, and delivering jobs together with the tools — as op- posed to separately, he said. "ere's many ways we'd love to continue to get into this data and also start to craft what could be potential policy solutions, what education systems should be doing, how we should be pre- paring our children…. (under- standing) what does it mean for our post-secondary institutions, what does it mean for our social safety net if there's going to be a huge disruption, what does it mean for the private sector, on- the-job training or work-inte- grated learning-type programs — all these things are going to be critical components of dealing with this in the future." Connections between the pri- vate sector and post-secondary institutions are critical, along with having employers sending signals to government in terms of labour market information and skills fo- cus, said Anson-Cartwright. A report like this gives people a chance to take stock and consider how to evaluate and understand the types of skills that are needed to do well, she said. "Don't assume because you're looking at getting into law that some of the more routine tasks might not be more automated, and there'd be less need. ey talk about commoditization in a whole range of areas — even the filing of some legal documents that used to be done in a very manual, human- driven process may not need nec- essarily as much oversight. "We would all benefit if we thought more in terms of not just knowledge and what you've stud- ied but what skills did you require or are you requiring? And how transferable are certain types of skills?" ere are expected to be nearly 712,000 new low-risk jobs by 2024. Credit: Rick Wilking (Reuters) A police bomb squad technician demonstrates an explosive ordnance device robot near the site of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, on July 14. in the restaurant industry as well, said Salopek. "How do you train your man- agers when you've got to cover shifts? You've always got to be watching that you don't bring in too much labour." But there are still opportunities to carve out a little time for train- ing — before, between or after shifts, she said. Avoiding risks Employers need to turn their minds to intentional onboarding of staff, including supervisory staff, she said. "ere are obligations under health and safety legislation to provide basic health and safety training when you're onboard- ing supervisors but, beyond that, there should be training and fa- miliarization with all policies — particularly policies that your front-line staff are going to be re- quired to implement and apply and enforce," said Williams. "So irrespective of whether or not you're dealing with a relative- ly transient workforce by virtue of high turnover and attrition… it really doesn't matter because even if you have an employee that you may not be inclined to make a huge investment into, you should think twice about it because the fact that that employee is there for any length of time could result in that employee creating (risk) for the company." ere is also the potential for massive reputational risk. In Duperreault's case, the CEO of Urban Planet's parent company, Y.M., contacted her to apologize directly and the company said it would be assisting her financially until she secures another job. Employers need to be vigilant about how they treat employees because there are far-reaching implications for the public per- ception, said Williams. "e employer is now becom- ing ever-mindful of their brand and the fact that if they have any type of issue that sullies their brand or reputation, it's going to lead to attraction issues," she said. "So if you are an environment such as a retail industry and you are subject to high turnover, I think you have to be ever more vigilant of your brand and imple- ment strategies that (designate) you as an employer of choice." Carve out time for training ALLERGY < pg. 2

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