Canadian HR Reporter

Canadian HR RepoRteR February 9, 2015 8 News we can probably expect rising unemployment in the province over the next four to six months, said Todd Hirsch, chief economist at ATB Financial in Calgary. "Going into this downturn, De- cember's unemployment rate was still 4.7 per cent (in Alberta) so it hasn't really started to show up yet — at least not in the Labour Force Survey. But we have been hearing anecdotally, and in press releases from companies, of layoffs." Layoffs, unemployment In January, the Canadian Asso- ciation of Oilwell Drilling Con- tractors said employment in the oil patch could be down by 23,000 direct and indirect jobs. And Calgary-based Suncor En- ergy announced 1,000 job cuts and slashed $1 billion in capital spending. If other companies follow suit, Alberta's unemployment rate will likely start to rise, said Hirsch. "My guess is, in a typical fash- ion, we're going to see that un- employment rate kind of spike up to maybe around six to six-and- a-half per cent by late spring — May or June. And our guess at this point, or our most likely case sce- nario, is that in the second half of 2015, oil prices will gradually start to come back. So we'll see that un- employment rate sort of level off and peak at about six or six-and-a- half (per cent), and gradually start to come back down in the second half of the year." TD is forecasting an unemploy- ment rate of five per cent in 2015 and 5.2 per cent in 2016, while RBC predicts 4.5 per cent and 4.9 per cent over the next two years. Wages and benefits will also likely experience some reining in, said Hirsch. "If you just look at average week- ly earnings, (Alberta) is about 20 per cent above the national aver- age and annual increases have also outpaced the national average. I think the increases going forward will likely come down somewhat. Overtime hours will definitely be slashed and that's a big part of that average weekly earnings. So I don't think it will fall all the way to the national average, but I think we'll see Alberta's wages and expected compensation increases moderate and come closer to the national average," he said. e Conference Board is con- servatively predicting oil prices might bottom out at under $50 per barrel, said Antunes. "So that means essentially a loss in revenue for Alberta alone — which produces close to three million barrels a day — some- where in the $30- to $35-billion loss in revenue," he said. "The immediate repercussions will be that that will translate into a loss in investment… We've already seen roughly $10 to $12 billion in cuts announced from the big produc- ers in terms of their investment intentions or capital investment intentions for this year." So far, there has been no significant change to hiring inten- tions in the province — but it's a lagging indicator, said Ted Mallett vice-president and chief econo- mist at the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) in Toronto. "Businesses that have already made these kinds of plans are, for now, planning to carry on with them," he said. "It would take some extra time for a greater sense of these permanent changes in the landscape to force a business to make a hiring change." TFWP impact There could also be potential impacts on usage of the govern- ment's Temporary Foreign Work- er Program (TFWP) in the prov- ince, said Hirsch. "It will depend on how long this downturn goes on because, right now, most of those temporary for- eign workers, the majority of them are taking low-paid, low-skill jobs. ey're in food and accommoda- tion — that's kind of the reality of it," he said. "If we see some temporary unemployment over the next six months, I think we will still need a lot of those temporary foreign workers to take those restaurant and hotel jobs." But the longer oil prices remain in a slump, the less need there may be for the TFWP, said Mallett. "What it would probably do is lessen the impetus or lessen the need for it," he said. "Moreover, there's probably going to be some challenges for certain businesses because when one does hire a TFW, you have to guarantee the employment for X period of time and businesses will, especially if they're faced with a major cutback, they still have these obligations to the people they've already brought into the country." e 'R' word e Conference Board was the first to use the word "recession" in economic forecasts for Alberta in 2015. But people shouldn't start to panic, said Hirsch. "It's a funny word because it does tend to be alarmist. We're not using the 'R' word yet — the Conference Board I think is the only one so far forecasting an outright contracting, a recession. Even they, though (are forecast- ing) a very shallow one — 0.5 per cent (contraction)," he said. "What all the forecasters, in- cluding ATB and the Confer- ence Board, what we all have in common is we're all expecting a dramatic slowdown in Alberta's economy… all the forecasts are pointed in the same direction, and that is soft growth, slower growth." Ripple effects ough employers in Alberta will be facing challenges, the impact on employers in other provinces remains to be seen. "We will see less interprovin- cial migration to Alberta this year — more people probably staying in Ontario and Quebec because their economies are picking up," said Hirsch. "Employers in On- tario and Quebec will probably — hopefully as their businesses pick up — they'll have a little bit easier time attracting workers because they won't be leaving for Alberta in as great a number." e situation is a double-edged sword, said Mallett. "I'm still on the fence on wheth- er it's a net benefit or a net cost to the Canadian economy. But a lot depends on what other forms of businesses will be able to do with a more modest set of energy prices." Savings from those low en- ergy prices haven't materialized too dramatically yet, but it could mean good news for businesses in manufacturing and tourism, said Mallett. "Generally, we will see the nega- tive impacts are pretty immediate, the positive ones will take some time to show up," he said. "We've got some fundamental positives in the other parts of the country like Ontario and possibly Quebec." Employers should not react in haste, said Hirsch — panic is never a recipe for economic success. "I believe the biggest threat to Alberta's economy right now ac- tually isn't $47 oil — it's actually fear. Once fear takes root in peo- ple, in consumers or businesses or boards of directors, once they're fearful they start to make irratio- nal decisions. at's the biggest threat," he said. "Absolutely, consumers and businesses, we should all be pru- dent and we should be realistic — it's going to be a rocky year and we have to maybe adjust some of our decisions accordingly. I'm not saying ignore it, but once you start to become fearful and panic-eyed about this, irrational decisions are made. And then everything kind of spirals downward, regardless of oil prices." Impacts on other provinces remain to be seen AlbertA < pg. 1 "we will see less interprovincial migration to Alberta this year — more people probably staying in ontario and Quebec." the consent, you provide contact information, you indicate the consent can be withdrawn and you describe the functions of the computer program." And if a device is lost or sto- len, the help desk may need to remotely "wipe" the computer, which may mean changing some of the settings. "If any of those settings are changed without the disclosure of these functions then there could be a violation of CASL. There doesn't have to be anything ma- licious involved, it's just if CASL applied," said Kratz. "It solves the problem but it may have unin- tended consequences and if it has unintended consequences, then there's a requirement for disclo- sure of these additional enhanced features." What's required is an analysis of the methodology by which the additional software is installed, what type of protective features are carried out under the BYOD program and then confirming the users understand what kind of functions or features may be involved, he said. "ere's some defensive steps that employers can take by mak- ing sure that they review how they deal with employee's remote de- vices, including bring-your-own- device policies, and then provide for the necessary notification and just analyze that whole process to make sure that they're providing the required and prescribed in- formation to the employees prior to the employee enrolling in the program," said Kratz. "And the consent that is sought from the employee can include updates, so a best practice would be that when you're obtaining consent, that you obtain consent to apply the updates as well." ere's also another concern, according to John Beardwood, partner at Fasken Martineau in To- ronto, that involves both personal and professional devices: Work- related emails sent from personal accounts, without consent. While companies may have complied with CASL by putting in place technological blocks on their servers that prevent employ- ees from communicating with cli- ents or potential customers on a "do-not-contact" list, that block is not available for personal email ac- counts or text messaging, he said. "If you're sending from a gmail address, you don't have a systems application solution available to you because that's somebody's individual account," he said. "There's a good argument you're representing Fasken when you send those emails which means that the company has to be concerned that the employees are obviously trained and understand the CASL implications." And while the employer may have complied with CASL in using lists of commercial contacts who have "opted in," em- ployees using personal accounts might bypass this database, intentionally or not, he said. So it's a matter of conveying to them the importance of sticking to the rules. And the same is true when it comes to texts, said "It's important to note that that would equally be captured by CASL and it's the same prob- lem as gmail accounts because texts are not going through your company's network, they're go- ing through your telco provider, for example Bell or Rogers, so… that means that you can be rep- resenting your company through that text but just like the gmail ac- count, you don't have the techno- logical block." cAsl < pg. 3 "e company has to be concerned that the employees are trained." Personal emails also an issue COST: $69 + applicable taxes LIVE WEBINAR TIME: 12:00 - 1:00 p.m. ET REGISTER ONLINE: www.HRReporter.com/CPDCentre For more Live and On-demand Webinars, visit us online. 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